Scoring Audit

AI Analysis

Flagged Criteria

• Spread (10pts): drift of +12.2pp (63.8% → 76%) exceeds 10pp threshold; recent pass rate 76% suggests possible over-fitting or temporary clustering in sample
• Even Spacing (14pts): negative drift of -5.5pp (53.5% → 48%) shows consistent underperformance; well below 68% benchmark for well-calibrated criterion

Suggestions

• Investigate Spread criterion: verify calculation logic and check if recent 50-draw window contains statistical anomaly; if validated, modest weight increase justified
• Review Even Spacing: pass rate of 48% in recent draws indicates poor calibration; consider reducing weight from 14pts or recalibrating thresholds to approach 65-70% target
• Monitor Unique Digits (33.7% all-time) which remains below benchmark but is not drifting; systematic underperformance may reflect inherent draw distribution rather than model error

Current Weights

Current-matrix calibration + honest reweighting. All analysis now scoped to the current 5/69 era (draws from 2015-10-07 on); ~591 older draws from the retired 5/59 matrix were being mixed in, biasing every frequency, σ-band, and drift figure. Verified against a 5M-combination Monte-Carlo: on current-era data all criteria sit within their 95% combinatorial bands (the lottery is fair). Recomputed every weight from exact combinatorial filter strength — weight ∝ (1 − pass rate), normalized to 100 by largest-remainder rounding; the prior v6.0 weights deviated from this formula by up to 7 pts (Even Spacing was the 2nd-hardest filter yet weighted lowest). Dropped Range Coverage as redundant (φ up to 0.41 with Sum Range, 0.33 with Tens Diversity) — down to 9 criteria.

Purely combinatorial model. Replace Consecutive Pair (empirical, 26.6% pass rate) with Modular Balance (all 3 residues mod 3, 64.3% pass rate). Remove Drift Rebalance overlay (empirical mean-reversion assumption). Reweight all criteria by filter strength — weight proportional to (1 - pass rate), normalized to 100. Unique Digits (35.1% pass rate) now highest at 17 pts. Protected criteria updated to Parity, High/Low, Unique Digits. All 10 criteria now derivable from pure combinatorial math with zero reliance on historical patterns.

Add Drift Rebalance overlay (+0-7 bonus pts). Compares last 20 draws against full-history baselines across 8 structural metrics (parity, high/low, sum, digit sum, primes, gap entropy, consecutive pairs, decades). Picks that lean against metrics drifted beyond 1σ earn up to 1 pt each, capped at 7. Operates at the distribution level only — no individual number targeting. Base 100-pt model unchanged.

Remove gambler's fallacy criteria. Replace Co-occurrence (5 pts, worse than random prospectively at 36% vs 50%), Hot/Cold Mix (5 pts, 35.6% vs 50%), and PB Weighting (5 pts, 70.1% vs 75%) with three combinatorially-grounded criteria: Range Coverage (6 pts, all 3 thirds represented, 62%), Tens Diversity (5 pts, 4+ tens groups, 66%), and Even Spacing (4 pts, all gaps ≤ 2x ideal, 59%). All criteria now verifiable from pure combinatorial math with zero reliance on historical patterns persisting.

Major model overhaul. Remove Decade Spread (97% pass rate, no discrimination) and Drought Bonus (gambler's fallacy, −20 drift). Add Consecutive Pair (6 pts, 28% of draws have one) and PB Weighting (5 pts, PB drought above 25th percentile). Graduate Sum Range (18/9/0 at 1σ/1.5σ), Spread (13/6/0), and Unique Digits (7/3/0 at 5/4 unique). Loosen Hot/Cold Mix to include 2+ hot or 2+ cold. Reduce Primes 8→5 pts, bump Co-occurrence 4→5 pts.

Replace Anti-Birthday (4 pts) with Co-occurrence (4 pts) — scores picks containing historically co-occurring number pairs. Recalibrate Drought Bonus thresholds (35→20 floor, 80→60 divisor) to fix −21.4 drift.

Redistribute points to maintain 100-point scale. Parity/High-Low/Sum Range 15→18 pts each, Spread 10→13 pts. Max stays at 100.

Drought Bonus 10→5 pts, Decade Spread 8→4 pts, Anti-Birthday 7→4 pts. First AI audit-driven recalibration.

Initial scoring model with 10 criteria, max 100 pts.