Scoring Audit
Every week, we backtest every winning Powerball draw against our scoring criteria and use AI to flag drift. This page shows the results — no black boxes.
This audit shows how Balliqa performs over time — not by predicting wins, but by consistently selecting structured combinations.
All combinations have equal odds. This audit demonstrates consistency in selection, not an increase in probability.
Latest audit: Mar 29, 2026 · Recent window: Dec 1, 2025 – Mar 25, 2026
What This Audit Proves
Consistency
The system behaves the same way every draw. Criteria pass rates stay within expected ranges across thousands of draws.
Structure
Picks are not random. They follow defined combinatorial criteria that align with how real draws are structured.
Transparency
No cherry-picking. Every criterion, every weight, every drift metric is published here. You see exactly what we see.
Every lottery combination has the same odds. What changes is how combinations are selected. This audit shows that Balliqa consistently selects from a structured subset — rather than picking randomly.
AI Analysis
medium confidenceLast run: Mar 29, 2026Overall scoring health is good with all-time average of 65.2 passing near the 68% (1σ) benchmark. Recent window shows +5.2 drift uplift, driven by three criteria exceeding +10% drift. Monitor whether this represents true distribution shift or sampling variance in the 50-draw window.
Flagged Criteria
- High/Low (65%→76%, +11 drift): significant recent outperformance; validate against broader recent sample
- Range Coverage (62.3%→74%, +11.7 drift): strongest drift signal; check for rule or data changes
- Tens Diversity (65.6%→78%, +12.4 drift): highest drift; unusual consistency in recent draws warrants investigation
- Spread (66.3%→62%, -4.3 drift): minor degradation but within normal variance; monitor next 20 draws
Suggestions
- Verify no changes to High/Low, Range Coverage, or Tens Diversity logic between 2025-11 and 2025-12
- Expand recent window to 100 draws to confirm whether +10% drifts persist or revert to mean
- If drift persists, consider modest weight reallocation: reduce Spread by 1–2pts, allocate to Tens Diversity
- Parity and Primes remain well-calibrated; Consecutive Pair underperforms (28.3%) but 6pts max impact is acceptable
Generated by Claude (Anthropic) · AI suggestions are reviewed by humans before any scoring changes are made.
Current Weights
v6.0100 ptsModel Changelog
Purely combinatorial model. Replace Consecutive Pair (empirical, 26.6% pass rate) with Modular Balance (all 3 residues mod 3, 64.3% pass rate). Remove Drift Rebalance overlay (empirical mean-reversion assumption). Reweight all criteria by filter strength — weight proportional to (1 - pass rate), normalized to 100. Unique Digits (35.1% pass rate) now highest at 17 pts. Protected criteria updated to Parity, High/Low, Unique Digits. All 10 criteria now derivable from pure combinatorial math with zero reliance on historical patterns.
Add Drift Rebalance overlay (+0-7 bonus pts). Compares last 20 draws against full-history baselines across 8 structural metrics (parity, high/low, sum, digit sum, primes, gap entropy, consecutive pairs, decades). Picks that lean against metrics drifted beyond 1σ earn up to 1 pt each, capped at 7. Operates at the distribution level only — no individual number targeting. Base 100-pt model unchanged.
Remove gambler's fallacy criteria. Replace Co-occurrence (5 pts, worse than random prospectively at 36% vs 50%), Hot/Cold Mix (5 pts, 35.6% vs 50%), and PB Weighting (5 pts, 70.1% vs 75%) with three combinatorially-grounded criteria: Range Coverage (6 pts, all 3 thirds represented, 62%), Tens Diversity (5 pts, 4+ tens groups, 66%), and Even Spacing (4 pts, all gaps ≤ 2x ideal, 59%). All criteria now verifiable from pure combinatorial math with zero reliance on historical patterns persisting.
Major model overhaul. Remove Decade Spread (97% pass rate, no discrimination) and Drought Bonus (gambler's fallacy, −20 drift). Add Consecutive Pair (6 pts, 28% of draws have one) and PB Weighting (5 pts, PB drought above 25th percentile). Graduate Sum Range (18/9/0 at 1σ/1.5σ), Spread (13/6/0), and Unique Digits (7/3/0 at 5/4 unique). Loosen Hot/Cold Mix to include 2+ hot or 2+ cold. Reduce Primes 8→5 pts, bump Co-occurrence 4→5 pts.
Replace Anti-Birthday (4 pts) with Co-occurrence (4 pts) — scores picks containing historically co-occurring number pairs. Recalibrate Drought Bonus thresholds (35→20 floor, 80→60 divisor) to fix −21.4 drift.
Redistribute points to maintain 100-point scale. Parity/High-Low/Sum Range 15→18 pts each, Spread 10→13 pts. Max stays at 100.
Drought Bonus 10→5 pts, Decade Spread 8→4 pts, Anti-Birthday 7→4 pts. First AI audit-driven recalibration.
Initial scoring model with 10 criteria, max 100 pts.
Reading the Audit
All-Time Avg
How the average winning draw scores against our criteria. Each criterion's all-time pass rate should closely match its combinatorial pass rate — confirming real draws behave like random samples from C(69,5).
Drift
The difference between recent (last 50 draws) and all-time pass rates. Low drift (±5) means the criterion is stable. High drift (>10) triggers auto-adjustment after 3 consecutive audits.
AI Confidence
How confident the AI analyst is in its assessment. Based on sample size and drift significance. High = clear signals, medium = some uncertainty, low = insufficient data.
Adjusted
Whether the model auto-adjusted its weights during this audit. Adjustments only fire when a criterion drifts >±10 for 3+ consecutive weeks, are capped at 2 points per cycle, and must pass validation.
Modular Balance
Checks that all 3 remainder classes (mod 3) are represented among the 5 white balls. Numbers 1-69 split roughly evenly across residues 0, 1, and 2. Combinations covering all three classes are the combinatorially dominant pattern (64.3% of all possible draws).
How Our AI Audit Works
We use AI to audit ourselves — not to predict numbers. Read the full breakdown of our scoring audit pipeline.
Read the Blog PostThe system is transparent. The math is published. The rest is up to you.
Get your picks before the next draw →